Bakersfield Condors at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Bakersfield Condors

4:3

Final / OT

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

BAKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

36%64%

xG: 3.64.7
High danger: 611
Chances: 1120
Shots: 3336

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 67% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal36

11Scoring chances20

6High-danger chances11

3.65Expected goals4.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	3–10	2–6	0.7–2.4
2nd	15–15	6–8	2–3	1.5–1.5
3rd	8–10	1–2	1–2	0.8–0.8
OT	1–0	1–0	1–0	0.6–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:51	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calvin Pickard

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 33
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.70
GSAx: +1.70

Isak Posch

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.65
GSAx: -0.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:50Penalty
1st 3:50Penalty
1st 7:24Penalty
1st 12:54Penalty
1st 13:44Jack Ahcan (0–1)5v4 · medium · 16 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
1st 17:01Mark Senden (0–2)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
1st 19:13Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 9:38Danil Gushchin (0–3)low · 43 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
2nd 12:34Penalty
2nd 17:53Penalty
2nd 19:48James Hamblin (1–3)4v5 · high · 15 ft · beat Isak Posch
3rd 3:23Penalty
3rd 5:49Atro Leppänen (2–3)low · 28 ft · beat Isak Posch
3rd 18:47Roby Järventie (3–3)grade A · 11 ft · beat Isak Posch
OT 0:31James Hamblin (4–3)grade A · 22 ft · beat Isak Posch