Iowa Wild at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Iowa Wild

3:2

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

IAGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 2.42.9
High danger: 34
Chances: 810
Shots: 2534

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 65% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal34

8Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances4

2.38Expected goals2.91

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	3–3	1–1	1.0–0.9
2nd	12–8	5–1	2–0	1.3–0.4
3rd	3–15	0–6	0–3	0.1–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	10:08	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.91
GSAx: +0.91

Michal Postava

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: -0.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:43Hunter Haight (1–0)medium · 26 ft · beat Michal Postava
1st 9:13Penalty
1st 16:34Oskar Olausson (2–0)low · 18 ft · beat Michal Postava
1st 19:23Penalty
2nd 19:46Caedan Bankier (3–0)high · 6 ft · beat Michal Postava
3rd 1:37Penalty
3rd 2:17Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (3–1)5v4 · medium · 18 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 13:10Penalty
3rd 14:11Penalty
3rd 17:50Penalty
3rd 17:56Shai Buium (3–2)5v4 · high · 35 ft · beat Cal Petersen