AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 27

Belleville Senators at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Belleville Senators
3:5
Final
Utica Comets

The sheet

BELUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
41%59%
xG
2.42.1
High danger
15
Chances
97
Shots
2620

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
UTC above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal20
9Scoring chances7
1High-danger chances5
2.35Expected goals2.06

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–82–30–10.5–0.6
2nd10–93–30–30.8–1.0
3rd10–34–11–11.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws
Shots faced
26
Saves
23
Allowed
3
xGA
2.35
GSAx
-0.65
Mads Søgaard
Shots faced
14
Saves
12
Allowed
2
xGA
1.67
GSAx
-0.33
Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
6
Saves
3
Allowed
3
xGA
0.39
GSAx
-2.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:42Jack Malone (0–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 12:01Shane Lachance (0–2)medium · 22 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 13:21Kyle Criscuolo (0–3)low · 46 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 8:31Xavier Parent (0–4)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 12:35Penalty
  • 2nd 12:37Penalty
  • 2nd 19:53Penalty
  • 2nd 19:53Penalty
  • 3rd 1:21Penalty
  • 3rd 1:30Angus Crookshank (0–5)5v4 · grade A · 11 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 3rd 4:41Penalty
  • 3rd 11:13Xavier Bourgault (1–5)medium · 16 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 3rd 12:03Lassi Thomson (2–5)low · 21 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 3rd 17:18Xavier Bourgault (3–5)low · 52 ft · beat Nico Daws