AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 27

Hershey Bears at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Hershey Bears
4:1
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

HERRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
25%75%
xG
2.32.2
High danger
04
Chances
77
Shots
3126

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal26
7Scoring chances7
0High-danger chances4
2.29Expected goals2.17

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–111–20–00.7–0.6
2nd4–103–20–10.4–0.8
3rd14–53–30–31.2–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
31
Saves
27
Allowed
4
xGA
2.29
GSAx
-1.71
Garin Bjorklund
Shots faced
26
Saves
25
Allowed
1
xGA
2.17
GSAx
+1.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 15:24Penalty
  • 2nd 6:51Penalty
  • 2nd 11:00Penalty
  • 2nd 13:21Joey Anderson (0–1)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
  • 2nd 17:14Penalty
  • 2nd 18:22Sonny Milano (1–1)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 18:52Penalty
  • 3rd 1:51Andrew Cristall (2–1)medium · tip · 8 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 5:04Penalty
  • 3rd 9:38Penalty
  • 3rd 12:45Penalty
  • 3rd 12:45Penalty
  • 3rd 12:45Penalty
  • 3rd 16:06Penalty
  • 3rd 17:03Ilya Protas (3–1)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 18:47Penalty
  • 3rd 18:47Andrew Cristall (4–1)empty net · low · 111 ft · beat Drew Commesso