Charlotte Checkers at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Charlotte Checkers

1:5

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

CLTSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 2.02.6
High danger: 36
Chances: 97
Shots: 1925

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal25

9Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances6

2.01Expected goals2.59

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–8	2–0	0–0	0.6–0.3
2nd	4–11	1–6	1–6	0.3–1.9
3rd	8–6	6–1	2–0	1.1–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Will Cranley

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.01
GSAx: +1.01

Kirill Gerasimyuk

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 11
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.31
GSAx: -2.69

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 10
Saves: 9
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.28
GSAx: +0.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:20Zach Dean (0–1)low · 24 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
1st 3:42Penalty
1st 6:14Penalty
1st 14:53Penalty
1st 17:45Penalty
1st 18:57Calle Rosén (0–2)5v4 · low · 65 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
2nd 4:30Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (0–3)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
2nd 5:22Noah Gregor (1–3)high · 8 ft · beat Will Cranley
2nd 6:25Dylan Peterson (1–4)low · 33 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
2nd 7:20Hugh McGing (1–5)grade A · 7 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 8:50Penalty
2nd 12:23Penalty
3rd 18:13Penalty
3rd 18:13Penalty
3rd 18:13Penalty
3rd 18:13Penalty
3rd 18:31Penalty
3rd 19:51Penalty
3rd 19:51Penalty
3rd 19:51Penalty
3rd 19:51Penalty
3rd 19:51Penalty
3rd 19:51Penalty
3rd 19:51Penalty