AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 28

Manitoba Moose at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Manitoba Moose
2:6
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

MBMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
15%85%
xG
1.73.0
High danger
15
Chances
512
Shots
2431

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal31
5Scoring chances12
1High-danger chances5
1.72Expected goals3.04

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–100–20–00.3–0.7
2nd13–94–51–21.2–1.1
3rd4–121–50–30.3–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB33:40 of the 3rd16:2016:20+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic
Shots faced
31
Saves
25
Allowed
6
xGA
3.04
GSAx
-2.96
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
24
Saves
22
Allowed
2
xGA
1.72
GSAx
-0.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:36Penalty
  • 1st 12:34Cole O’Hara (0–1)medium · 32 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 1st 14:30Penalty
  • 1st 17:47Penalty
  • 2nd 1:07Penalty
  • 2nd 4:49Penalty
  • 2nd 8:54Joey Willis (0–2)grade A · rebound · 26 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 9:37Brayden Yager (1–2)low · 30 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 11:42Penalty
  • 2nd 12:10Fedor Svechkov (1–3)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 12:45Tyson Empey (2–3)medium · 21 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 15:37Penalty
  • 2nd 15:37Penalty
  • 2nd 15:57Penalty
  • 2nd 16:32Reid Schaefer (2–4)4v5 · medium · 36 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 3:40Kyle Marino (2–5)high · 9 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 9:58Isaac Ratcliffe (2–6)high · 21 ft · beat Thomas Milic