Utica Comets at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Utica Comets

5:1

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

UTCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

79%21%

xG: 3.82.4
High danger: 71
Chances: 1310
Shots: 3528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal28

13Scoring chances10

7High-danger chances1

3.78Expected goals2.45

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	2–2	1–0	0.8–0.6
2nd	20–10	10–2	5–0	2.6–0.7
3rd	4–10	1–6	1–1	0.4–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 30
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.78
GSAx: -1.22

Jakub Málek

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.45
GSAx: +1.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:11Marc McLaughlin (1–0)low · 60 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 6:03Penalty
1st 19:21Penalty
2nd 6:52Carter Yakemchuk (1–1)low · wrist · 22 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 11:18Xavier Parent (2–1)high · 12 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 11:59Penalty
2nd 13:46Xavier Parent (3–1)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 13:55Jonathan Gruden (4–1)high · 20 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 18:38Penalty
2nd 18:38Penalty
2nd 18:55Xavier Parent (5–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
3rd 1:45Penalty
3rd 11:01Penalty
3rd 16:15Penalty
3rd 18:58Penalty
3rd 19:47Penalty
3rd 19:47Penalty