AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 28

Hershey Bears at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Hershey Bears
5:1
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

HERRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
68%32%
xG
2.82.1
High danger
54
Chances
105
Shots
3526

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal26
10Scoring chances5
5High-danger chances4
2.77Expected goals2.08

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–54–13–11.1–0.3
2nd12–95–21–11.1–0.7
3rd9–121–21–20.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
35
Saves
30
Allowed
5
xGA
2.77
GSAx
-2.23
Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
26
Saves
25
Allowed
1
xGA
2.08
GSAx
+1.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:38Penalty
  • 1st 9:16Penalty
  • 1st 10:02Brett Leason (1–0)4v5 · low · 43 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 14:16Penalty
  • 1st 14:16Penalty
  • 1st 14:16Penalty
  • 1st 14:16Penalty
  • 1st 17:18Penalty
  • 1st 19:43Penalty
  • 2nd 1:27Penalty
  • 2nd 2:59Penalty
  • 2nd 4:39Penalty
  • 2nd 4:39Penalty
  • 2nd 4:39Penalty
  • 2nd 4:39Penalty
  • 2nd 5:55Matt Strome (2–0)high · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 14:33Matt Strome (3–0)medium · 12 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 16:53Penalty
  • 2nd 17:08Graeme Clarke (4–0)5v4 · low · 50 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 17:41Penalty
  • 2nd 17:41Penalty
  • 2nd 17:41Penalty
  • 3rd 2:18Kevin Lombardi (4–1)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 3:47Penalty
  • 3rd 3:47Ilya Protas (5–1)high · 16 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 7:53Penalty
  • 3rd 15:15Penalty
  • 3rd 15:15Penalty
  • 3rd 18:02Penalty
  • 3rd 19:57Penalty
  • 3rd 19:57Penalty
  • 3rd 19:57Penalty
  • 3rd 19:57Penalty