Colorado Eagles at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Colorado Eagles

2:4

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

COLHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 2.83.3
High danger: 510
Chances: 913
Shots: 4127

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal27

9Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances10

2.83Expected goals3.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–13	2–5	2–3	1.0–1.4
2nd	9–9	3–5	2–4	0.8–1.2
3rd	19–5	4–3	1–3	1.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	4:42	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 39
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.83
GSAx: +0.83

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.31
GSAx: -0.69

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:05Penalty
1st 9:26Penalty
1st 11:20Kai Uchacz (0–1)5v4 · high · wrist · 10 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 12:19Keaton Middleton (1–1)low · wrist · 36 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 6:30Tanner Laczynski (1–2)high · backhand · 15 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 7:43Penalty
2nd 12:13Penalty
2nd 13:36Ben Hemmerling (1–3)5v4 · high · wrist · 23 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 0:31Penalty
3rd 9:30Penalty
3rd 13:34Jayson Megna (2–3)low · wrist · 44 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 16:43Ben Hemmerling (2–4)high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Trent Miner