Bridgeport Islanders at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Bridgeport Islanders

2:3

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

BRIPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 3.21.5
High danger: 32
Chances: 115
Shots: 3817

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal17

11Scoring chances5

3High-danger chances2

3.16Expected goals1.49

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–5	6–0	1–0	1.4–0.3
2nd	17–8	2–4	2–2	1.2–1.0
3rd	8–4	3–1	0–0	0.6–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 36
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.16
GSAx: +1.16

Jeremy Smith

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 14
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.49
GSAx: -1.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:00Penalty
1st 4:39Penalty
2nd 2:47Penalty
2nd 3:23Riley Duran (0–1)4v5 · high · 12 ft · beat Jeremy Smith
2nd 12:44Cam Berg (1–1)low · 48 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 16:55Matthew Poitras (1–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Jeremy Smith
2nd 19:54Matěj Blümel (1–3)low · 38 ft · beat Jeremy Smith
3rd 1:33Adam Beckman (2–3)medium · 12 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 10:53Penalty
3rd 19:57Penalty