Hartford Wolf Pack at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hartford Wolf Pack

3:6

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HFDLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 2.93.2
High danger: 26
Chances: 1210
Shots: 2630

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal30

12Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances6

2.92Expected goals3.21

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–12	2–3	1–2	0.5–1.2
2nd	13–4	6–2	1–0	1.6–0.4
3rd	9–14	4–5	0–4	0.9–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	6:33 of the 3rd	13:27	9:39	+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Spencer Martin

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 24
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.21
GSAx: -2.79

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.92
GSAx: -0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:32Oscar Eklind (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Spencer Martin
1st 7:24Anthony Richard (0–2)low · 43 ft · beat Spencer Martin
1st 10:25Anton Blidh (1–2)high · 14 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 13:46Juuso Pärssinen (2–2)low · 14 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
2nd 1:34Alex Bump (2–3)medium · 30 ft · beat Spencer Martin
2nd 13:30Penalty
2nd 13:30Penalty
2nd 16:55Cooper Marody (2–4)low · 33 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 5:41Penalty
3rd 6:33Lane Pederson (2–5)5v4 · high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 7:52Brennan Othmann (3–5)medium · 22 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 11:40Anthony Richard (3–6)high · 7 ft · beat Spencer Martin