AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 1

Manitoba Moose at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Manitoba Moose
3:4
Final / OT
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

MBMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
75%25%
xG
4.02.0
High danger
73
Chances
137
Shots
3828

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal28
13Scoring chances7
7High-danger chances3
4.02Expected goals2.02

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–92–01–00.9–0.4
2nd12–107–45–22.2–0.9
3rd10–84–31–10.9–0.6
OT0–10–00–00.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL212:09 of the 3rd7:515:16+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
38
Saves
35
Allowed
3
xGA
4.02
GSAx
+1.02
Thomas Milic
Shots faced
28
Saves
24
Allowed
4
xGA
2.02
GSAx
-1.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:50Penalty
  • 1st 9:40Penalty
  • 1st 9:40Penalty
  • 1st 9:40Penalty
  • 1st 12:03Penalty
  • 1st 12:03Penalty
  • 1st 19:56Penalty
  • 1st 19:56Penalty
  • 1st 19:56Penalty
  • 1st 19:56Penalty
  • 2nd 2:25Dylan Moulton (1–0)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 5:56Reid Schaefer (1–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 6:05Penalty
  • 2nd 11:06Penalty
  • 2nd 11:56Penalty
  • 2nd 16:44Phillip Di Giuseppe (2–1)high · 6 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 1:27Penalty
  • 3rd 11:17Nikita Chibrikov (3–1)high · 10 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 14:26Penalty
  • 3rd 16:33David Edstrom (3–2)high · 14 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 17:48Fedor Svechkov (3–3)medium · 30 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • OT 1:48Reid Schaefer (3–4)low · 19 ft · beat Thomas Milic