AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 1

Chicago Wolves at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Chicago Wolves
2:5
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

CHITORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
76%24%
xG
3.82.3
High danger
62
Chances
138
Shots
3425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal25
13Scoring chances8
6High-danger chances2
3.81Expected goals2.33

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–116–34–01.5–1.0
2nd19–75–32–11.6–0.8
3rd7–72–20–10.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CHI−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CHI212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
34
Saves
32
Allowed
2
xGA
3.81
GSAx
+1.81
Amir Miftakhov
Shots faced
24
Saves
20
Allowed
4
xGA
2.33
GSAx
-1.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:36Penalty
  • 1st 10:57Penalty
  • 1st 15:11Marc Johnstone (0–1)low · 15 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 1st 16:55Dominik Badinka (1–1)low · 27 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 18:02Penalty
  • 1st 18:02Penalty
  • 2nd 3:09Benoit-Olivier Groulx (1–2)medium · 16 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 2nd 7:36Penalty
  • 2nd 7:44Jacob Quillan (1–3)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 2nd 7:50Penalty
  • 2nd 7:50Penalty
  • 2nd 10:25Penalty
  • 2nd 12:33Noel Gunler (2–3)low · 11 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 14:29Penalty
  • 2nd 14:29Penalty
  • 2nd 16:16Luke Haymes (2–4)low · 36 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 2nd 17:05Penalty
  • 3rd 18:43Matt Benning (2–5)empty net · low · 163 ft