AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 1

Bakersfield Condors at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Bakersfield Condors
2:4
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

BAKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
44%56%
xG
2.22.5
High danger
34
Chances
810
Shots
2428

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal28
8Scoring chances10
3High-danger chances4
2.18Expected goals2.52

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–131–70–30.5–1.4
2nd7–83–23–10.9–0.7
3rd9–74–10–00.7–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calvin Pickard
Shots faced
28
Saves
24
Allowed
4
xGA
2.52
GSAx
-1.48
Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
24
Saves
22
Allowed
2
xGA
2.18
GSAx
+0.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:31Aatu Jämsen (0–1)high · 7 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
  • 1st 7:14Penalty
  • 1st 7:58Atro Leppänen (1–1)5v4 · low · 60 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 1st 12:21Penalty
  • 1st 19:10Penalty
  • 2nd 2:44Penalty
  • 2nd 2:44Penalty
  • 2nd 2:44Penalty
  • 2nd 2:44Penalty
  • 2nd 5:26Penalty
  • 2nd 6:39Penalty
  • 2nd 9:14Penalty
  • 2nd 12:23Jared Wright (1–2)high · 4 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
  • 2nd 19:19Josh Samanski (2–2)high · 19 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 1:22Penalty
  • 3rd 1:47Koehn Ziemmer (2–3)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
  • 3rd 3:55Penalty
  • 3rd 10:10Penalty
  • 3rd 19:33Cole Guttman (2–4)empty net · low · 80 ft · beat Calvin Pickard