Chicago Wolves at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Chicago Wolves

4:3

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

CHIMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 2.02.5
High danger: 44
Chances: 78
Shots: 2127

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal27

7Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances4

1.96Expected goals2.53

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–8	2–1	2–1	0.7–0.6
2nd	6–8	3–6	1–3	0.5–1.3
3rd	7–11	2–1	1–0	0.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.53
GSAx: -0.47

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 17
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.96
GSAx: -2.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:34Juuso Välimäki (1–0)low · 24 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 10:02Penalty
1st 11:02Reid Schaefer (1–1)4v5 · high · 10 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 18:35Bradly Nadeau (2–1)low · 26 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 4:11Penalty
2nd 4:11Penalty
2nd 9:19Penalty
2nd 11:54Penalty
2nd 13:19Penalty
2nd 15:49Ryder Rolston (2–2)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 18:38Nikita Pavlychev (3–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 0:24Penalty
3rd 3:16Ronan Seeley (4–2)low · 31 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 9:38Penalty
3rd 17:38Fedor Svechkov (4–3)medium · 25 ft · beat Cayden Primeau