AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, March 3

Colorado Eagles at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Colorado Eagles
4:5
Final / SO
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

COLBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
40%60%
xG
2.93.9
High danger
57
Chances
1015
Shots
3332

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 39% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal32
10Scoring chances15
5High-danger chances7
2.90Expected goals3.85

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–143–72–20.8–1.5
2nd9–50–30–20.5–0.7
3rd11–116–43–21.2–1.3
OT5–21–10–10.5–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:041:48+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
33
Saves
29
Allowed
4
xGA
2.90
GSAx
-1.10
Trent Miner
Shots faced
32
Saves
28
Allowed
4
xGA
3.85
GSAx
-0.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:29James Hamblin (0–1)high · wrist · 11 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 1st 5:50Penalty
  • 1st 6:49Luke Toporowski (1–1)5v4 · high · tip · 10 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 10:59Penalty
  • 1st 13:22Penalty
  • 1st 15:06Isaac Howard (1–2)5v4 · medium · slap · 29 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 1st 16:36Quinn Hutson (1–3)low · wrist · 17 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 1st 16:47Penalty
  • 1st 16:47Penalty
  • 2nd 12:40Penalty
  • 2nd 12:50Penalty
  • 2nd 14:35Penalty
  • 3rd 2:21Tristen Nielsen (2–3)high · backhand · 11 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 3:22Luke Toporowski (3–3)high · wrist · 13 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 4:02Penalty
  • 3rd 5:28Danil Gushchin (4–3)5v4 · medium · wrist · 17 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 8:51Penalty
  • 3rd 15:57Penalty
  • 3rd 18:44Sam Poulin (4–4)high · wrist · 13 ft · beat Trent Miner