Charlotte Checkers at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Charlotte Checkers

4:1

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

CLTHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

57%43%

xG: 2.52.2
High danger: 53
Chances: 67
Shots: 2325

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 38% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal25

6Scoring chances7

5High-danger chances3

2.47Expected goals2.20

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–8	2–2	1–0	0.8–0.5
2nd	9–7	2–3	2–1	0.9–0.7
3rd	8–10	2–2	2–2	0.8–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.20
GSAx: +1.20

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.47
GSAx: -1.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:51Penalty
1st 14:51Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 4:19Noah Gregor (1–0)high · 8 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 5:46Penalty
2nd 13:41Alex Suzdalev (1–1)high · 7 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 19:07Robert Mastrosimone (2–1)high · 7 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 0:31Nolan Foote (3–1)low · 36 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 1:46Penalty
3rd 17:59Jack Studnicka (4–1)empty net · high · 7 ft · beat Clay Stevenson