AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, March 4

Providence Bruins at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Providence Bruins
3:2
Final
Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

PROHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
19%81%
xG
2.14.5
High danger
38
Chances
620
Shots
2541

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HFD above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 40% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal41
6Scoring chances20
3High-danger chances8
2.06Expected goals4.47

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–111–50–30.4–1.1
2nd9–184–113–31.0–2.1
3rd10–121–40–20.7–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD118:11 of the 3rd1:491:49+0.042 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
41
Saves
39
Allowed
2
xGA
4.47
GSAx
+2.47
Dylan Garand
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.06
GSAx
-0.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:38Trey Fix-Wolansky (0–1)low · 24 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 1st 2:54Penalty
  • 2nd 4:12Penalty
  • 2nd 6:36Derrick Pouliot (0–2)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 12:32Frederic Brunet (1–2)low · 72 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 13:10Penalty
  • 2nd 14:00Riley Tufte (2–2)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 15:08Penalty
  • 2nd 16:41Penalty
  • 3rd 2:43Penalty
  • 3rd 2:43Penalty
  • 3rd 18:11Matthew Poitras (3–2)low · 23 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 18:15Penalty
  • 3rd 19:53Penalty
  • 3rd 19:53Penalty
  • 3rd 19:53Penalty
  • 3rd 19:53Penalty
  • 3rd 19:53Penalty