Rockford IceHogs at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Rockford IceHogs

3:7

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

RFDGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 4.62.8
High danger: 83
Chances: 1612
Shots: 3931

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 70% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal31

16Scoring chances12

8High-danger chances3

4.57Expected goals2.82

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–13	6–4	4–0	1.5–1.0
2nd	10–11	4–5	3–2	1.2–1.2
3rd	16–7	6–3	1–1	1.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	4:16 of the 3rd	15:44	10:15	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michal Postava

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 36
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.56
GSAx: +1.56

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 24
Allowed: 7
xGA: 2.82
GSAx: -4.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:08Sheldon Dries (0–1)medium · wrist · 11 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 3:57Nick Lardis (1–1)low · wrist · 37 ft · beat Michal Postava
1st 5:37Connor Mylymok (2–1)high · wrist · 7 ft · beat Michal Postava
1st 5:54Penalty
1st 17:01Amadeus Lombardi (2–2)medium · backhand · 16 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 1:10John Leonard (2–3)low · wrist · 29 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 11:09Carter Mazur (2–4)medium · wrist · 26 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 1:05Penalty
3rd 4:16Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (2–5)high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 6:40Joey Anderson (3–5)grade A · backhand · rebound · 6 ft · beat Michal Postava
3rd 17:00Erik Gustafsson (3–6)empty net · low · wrist · 146 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 18:30Gabriel Seger (3–7)empty net · low · 43 ft · beat Drew Commesso