Tucson Roadrunners at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

1:4

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

TUCONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 1.63.0
High danger: 37
Chances: 713
Shots: 1927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal27

7Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances7

1.64Expected goals2.95

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–10	2–5	1–2	0.3–1.1
2nd	7–9	2–3	1–2	0.6–0.9
3rd	9–8	3–5	1–3	0.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.95
GSAx: -1.05

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.64
GSAx: +0.64

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:23Penalty
1st 17:13Penalty
1st 17:34Penalty
1st 17:49Martin Chromiak (0–1)5v4 · high · 25 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 19:21Andrew Agozzino (1–1)4v5 · high · 11 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 0:42Penalty
2nd 3:46Penalty
2nd 12:20Penalty
2nd 13:32Penalty
2nd 15:34Penalty
3rd 1:59Penalty
3rd 3:02Andre Lee (1–2)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 3:37Jared Wright (1–3)high · 7 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 3:52Penalty
3rd 3:52Penalty
3rd 7:43Penalty
3rd 7:43Penalty
3rd 17:46Jared Wright (1–4)empty net · medium · 168 ft · beat Matthew Villalta