Coachella Valley Firebirds at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Coachella Valley Firebirds

1:5

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

CVHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 2.53.8
High danger: 29
Chances: 1117
Shots: 3437

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal37

11Scoring chances17

2High-danger chances9

2.46Expected goals3.84

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–14	3–8	1–4	0.7–1.6
2nd	9–12	4–5	1–2	0.9–1.1
3rd	13–11	4–4	0–3	0.8–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 32
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.84
GSAx: -1.16

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 33
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: +1.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:17Mitch McLain (0–1)low · wrist · 28 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 6:19Mathieu Cataford (0–2)medium · tip · 20 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 15:30Lleyton Roed (1–2)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 4:31Kai Uchacz (1–3)medium · wrist · 6 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 4:46Penalty
2nd 13:50Penalty
2nd 13:50Penalty
2nd 13:50Jakub Brabenec (1–4)low · wrist · 31 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 15:52Ben Hemmerling (1–5)high · tip · 13 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 16:12Penalty
3rd 1:47Penalty
3rd 1:47Penalty
3rd 1:47Penalty
3rd 10:09Penalty
3rd 10:09Penalty
3rd 10:09Penalty
3rd 10:09Penalty
3rd 10:09Penalty
3rd 10:09Penalty
3rd 10:09Penalty
3rd 10:09Penalty
3rd 17:41Penalty