Belleville Senators at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Belleville Senators

2:5

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

BELUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 1.12.0
High danger: 11
Chances: 46
Shots: 1427

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

14Shots on goal27

4Scoring chances6

1High-danger chances1

1.05Expected goals2.03

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–6	1–1	1–1	0.4–0.5
2nd	2–12	1–1	0–0	0.2–0.7
3rd	6–9	2–4	0–0	0.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	3	6:55 of the 3rd	13:05	12:46	+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.03
GSAx: -2.97

Jakub Málek

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 12
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.05
GSAx: -0.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:45Penalty
1st 1:45Penalty
1st 5:15Penalty
1st 19:14Penalty
1st 19:59Xavier Parent (0–1)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 11:47Penalty
2nd 14:03Garrett Pilon (1–1)low · 46 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 16:49Penalty
2nd 16:49Penalty
2nd 16:49Penalty
2nd 17:47Penalty
3rd 1:19Penalty
3rd 1:30Jonathan Gruden (1–2)4v5 · medium · 14 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 3:35Brian Halonen (1–3)medium · 12 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 6:55Ethan Edwards (1–4)medium · 8 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 11:50Tyler Boucher (2–4)medium · 22 ft · beat Jakub Málek
3rd 16:25Penalty
3rd 18:22Topias Vilen (2–5)empty net · low · 121 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 19:52Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty