Rochester Americans at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Rochester Americans

2:4

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

ROCLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

87%13%

xG: 4.21.9
High danger: 92
Chances: 164
Shots: 3723

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal23

16Scoring chances4

9High-danger chances2

4.21Expected goals1.85

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	4–2	1–1	1.0–0.6
2nd	4–10	1–2	1–1	0.3–0.9
3rd	22–6	11–0	7–0	3.0–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jacob Fowler

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.21
GSAx: +2.21

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.85
GSAx: -2.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:46Joshua Roy (0–1)low · wrist · 9 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 14:20Penalty
1st 16:35Penalty
1st 16:57Owen Beck (0–2)4v5 · high · tip · 9 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 12:48Penalty
2nd 12:48Penalty
2nd 12:48Penalty
2nd 12:48Penalty
2nd 15:25Penalty
3rd 8:57Penalty
3rd 14:15David Reinbacher (0–3)low · wrist · 43 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 14:32Penalty
3rd 14:32Penalty
3rd 14:32Penalty
3rd 14:51Penalty
3rd 15:59Jake Leschyshyn (1–3)5v4 · medium · tip · 11 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
3rd 16:42Florian Xhekaj (1–4)4v5 · low · backhand · 39 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 19:21Ryan Johnson (2–4)low · slap · 37 ft · beat Jacob Fowler