AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 6

Charlotte Checkers at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Charlotte Checkers
5:3
Final
Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

CLTLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
36%64%
xG
2.84.9
High danger
109
Chances
1221
Shots
2136

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LV above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 38% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal36
12Scoring chances21
10High-danger chances9
2.81Expected goals4.89

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–74–34–01.0–0.7
2nd6–155–104–50.9–2.2
3rd9–143–82–40.9–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

LV−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
LV34:51 of the 3rd15:0915:09+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kirill Gerasimyuk
Shots faced
36
Saves
33
Allowed
3
xGA
4.89
GSAx
+1.89
Aleksei Kolosov
Shots faced
21
Saves
16
Allowed
5
xGA
2.81
GSAx
-2.19

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:48Penalty
  • 1st 10:22Nolan Foote (1–0)high · 13 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 1st 15:04Penalty
  • 1st 16:48Penalty
  • 2nd 2:01Penalty
  • 2nd 3:24Cooper Marody (1–1)5v4 · high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
  • 2nd 7:52Noah Gregor (2–1)high · 11 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 2nd 11:54Penalty
  • 2nd 16:27Penalty
  • 2nd 16:27Penalty
  • 2nd 19:17Nate Smith (3–1)high · 18 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 4:51Brett Chorske (4–1)high · 17 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 9:52Penalty
  • 3rd 13:47Oscar Eklind (4–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
  • 3rd 18:27Mikulas Hovorka (5–2)empty net · low · 170 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 19:21Penalty
  • 3rd 19:59Jacob Gaucher (5–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 167 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk