Toronto Marlies at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Toronto Marlies

2:3

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

TORMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 2.52.7
High danger: 34
Chances: 99
Shots: 2926

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal26

9Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances4

2.45Expected goals2.72

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–11	3–3	1–0	0.9–0.9
2nd	12–6	4–2	1–1	1.0–0.8
3rd	6–9	2–4	1–3	0.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.45
GSAx: +0.45

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.72
GSAx: -0.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:59Penalty
1st 10:24Penalty
1st 11:20Penalty
1st 16:05Isaak Phillips (0–1)low · 35 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 18:44Henry Thrun (1–1)low · 33 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 2:05Borya Valis (2–1)high · 14 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 3:02Penalty
2nd 3:12Brayden Yager (2–2)5v4 · low · 62 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 13:07Penalty
2nd 15:56Penalty
3rd 6:08Ashton Sautner (2–3)low · 69 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 15:52Penalty
3rd 19:28Penalty