AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 6

San Jose Barracuda at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

San Jose Barracuda
4:1
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

SJMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
60%40%
xG
3.02.3
High danger
43
Chances
109
Shots
3725

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal25
10Scoring chances9
4High-danger chances3
2.97Expected goals2.32

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–82–41–10.8–0.8
2nd14–74–21–01.2–0.5
3rd13–104–32–21.0–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
37
Saves
33
Allowed
4
xGA
2.97
GSAx
-1.03
Matt Davis
Shots faced
25
Saves
24
Allowed
1
xGA
2.32
GSAx
+1.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:42Shawn Element (0–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Matt Davis
  • 1st 10:28Penalty
  • 1st 14:14Quentin Musty (1–1)high · 12 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 14:32Penalty
  • 1st 16:53Penalty
  • 2nd 2:24Oliver Wahlstrom (2–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 5:09Quentin Musty (3–1)low · 43 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 5:00Penalty
  • 3rd 12:48Luca Cagnoni (4–1)high · rebound · 16 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 13:37Penalty
  • 3rd 13:37Penalty
  • 3rd 14:22Penalty
  • 3rd 15:27Penalty