Henderson Silver Knights at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

3:4

Final / SO

Ontario Reign

The sheet

HSKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

66%34%

xG: 3.53.1
High danger: 64
Chances: 139
Shots: 3333

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal33

13Scoring chances9

6High-danger chances4

3.46Expected goals3.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–11	5–2	1–1	1.0–1.0
2nd	9–15	3–5	1–3	0.7–1.6
3rd	10–6	3–2	3–0	1.3–0.4
OT	3–1	2–0	1–0	0.4–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:16	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.46
GSAx: +0.46

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.09
GSAx: +0.09

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:20Jakub Brabenec (1–0)medium · 22 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 16:05Penalty
2nd 0:49Penalty
2nd 6:20Kenta Isogai (1–1)high · 11 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 15:10Martin Chromiak (1–2)low · 39 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 16:17Penalty
2nd 19:35Penalty
3rd 0:30Matyas Sapovaliv (2–2)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 9:03Penalty
3rd 12:57Andre Lee (2–3)medium · 15 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 18:12Raphael Lavoie (3–3)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 18:58Penalty
3rd 18:58Penalty