AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 7

Providence Bruins at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Providence Bruins
1:4
Final
Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

PROBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
47%53%
xG
2.22.5
High danger
44
Chances
59
Shots
2525

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BRI above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal25
5Scoring chances9
4High-danger chances4
2.23Expected goals2.48

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–90–20–10.6–0.6
2nd3–91–41–20.3–1.2
3rd9–74–33–11.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

PRO−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
PRO40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Luke Cavallin
Shots faced
25
Saves
21
Allowed
4
xGA
2.48
GSAx
-1.52
Henrik Tikkanen
Shots faced
25
Saves
24
Allowed
1
xGA
2.23
GSAx
+1.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:16Penalty
  • 1st 14:26Alex Jefferies (0–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 1st 17:03Matt Luff (0–2)high · 10 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 1st 17:56Penalty
  • 1st 17:56Penalty
  • 2nd 2:05Penalty
  • 2nd 2:37Liam Foudy (0–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 2nd 5:39Matthew Maggio (0–4)medium · 32 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 2nd 7:58Penalty
  • 2nd 10:57Penalty
  • 2nd 10:57Penalty
  • 2nd 11:45Penalty
  • 2nd 16:02Penalty
  • 2nd 16:02Penalty
  • 2nd 16:02Penalty
  • 2nd 16:02Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 0:31Riley Tufte (1–4)5v4 · grade A · 22 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 3rd 8:43Penalty
  • 3rd 16:31Penalty