Hershey Bears at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Hershey Bears

2:5

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

HERHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 2.03.0
High danger: 37
Chances: 810
Shots: 2132

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal32

8Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances7

2.01Expected goals2.96

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–13	4–3	0–1	0.7–1.1
2nd	6–10	2–5	2–4	0.6–1.2
3rd	8–9	2–2	1–2	0.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	3	10:04 of the 3rd	9:56	9:56	+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Garin Bjorklund

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 27
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.96
GSAx: -2.04

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.01
GSAx: +0.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:52Andrew Cristall (1–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 8:32Trey Fix-Wolansky (1–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
1st 18:02Carey Terrance (1–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
2nd 1:28Carey Terrance (1–3)high · 8 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
2nd 8:12Penalty
2nd 10:29Penalty
2nd 17:23Penalty
2nd 17:23Penalty
3rd 10:04Trey Fix-Wolansky (1–4)high · 8 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 12:45Penalty
3rd 15:14Grant Cruikshank (2–4)medium · 11 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 17:36Adam Sýkora (2–5)empty net · low · 62 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 19:46Penalty
3rd 19:46Penalty
3rd 19:46Penalty
3rd 19:46Penalty
3rd 19:46Penalty
3rd 19:46Penalty
3rd 19:46Penalty
3rd 19:54Penalty
3rd 19:54Penalty