AHLDashboard
Saturday, March 7

Iowa Wild at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Iowa Wild
2:1
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

IASPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
46%54%
xG
2.02.1
High danger
34
Chances
65
Shots
2035

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal35
6Scoring chances5
3High-danger chances4
2.03Expected goals2.12

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8911110.50.4
2nd7842221.20.7
3rd51812010.41.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR118:00 of the 3rd2:002:00+0.046 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
35
Saves
34
Allowed
1
xGA
2.11
GSAx
+1.11
Shots faced
20
Saves
18
Allowed
2
xGA
2.03
GSAx
+0.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:30Penalty
  • 1st 5:30Penalty
  • 1st 7:49Penalty
  • 1st 8:45Penalty
  • 1st 13:55Penalty
  • 1st 19:55Penalty
  • 2nd 6:58Penalty
  • 2nd 8:52Penalty
  • 2nd 9:01Tyler Pitlick (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Will Cranley
  • 2nd 16:50Penalty
  • 2nd 16:50Penalty
  • 2nd 19:33Penalty
  • 3rd 8:36Penalty
  • 3rd 13:49Hugh McGing (1–1)medium · 25 ft · beat William Rousseau
  • 3rd 18:00Dylan Gambrell (2–1)low · 48 ft · beat Will Cranley