San Jose Barracuda at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

San Jose Barracuda

3:1

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

SJMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

20%80%

xG: 2.03.4
High danger: 26
Chances: 413
Shots: 2927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal27

4Scoring chances13

2High-danger chances6

2.04Expected goals3.35

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–13	1–9	0–5	0.4–2.2
2nd	13–7	1–4	1–1	0.9–0.8
3rd	10–7	2–0	1–0	0.7–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: -0.96

Laurent Brossoit

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.35
GSAx: +2.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:18Penalty
1st 7:12Quentin Musty (1–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 11:32Penalty
1st 19:03Penalty
1st 19:29Penalty
1st 19:46Austin Roest (1–1)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
3rd 8:42Penalty
3rd 16:16Kasper Halttunen (2–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 18:52Patrick Giles (3–1)empty net · low · 55 ft · beat Matthew Murray