AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 7

Utica Comets at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Utica Comets
3:7
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

UTCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
25%75%
xG
2.63.6
High danger
213
Chances
1215
Shots
2622

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal22
12Scoring chances15
2High-danger chances13
2.61Expected goals3.59

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–72–41–20.6–0.8
2nd15–78–51–51.7–1.1
3rd5–82–60–60.4–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

UTC−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
UTC310:19 of the 3rd9:419:41+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard
Shots faced
26
Saves
23
Allowed
3
xGA
2.61
GSAx
-0.39
Jakub Málek
Shots faced
12
Saves
10
Allowed
2
xGA
2.29
GSAx
+0.29
Nico Daws
Shots faced
10
Saves
5
Allowed
5
xGA
1.30
GSAx
-3.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:46Carter Yakemchuk (0–1)low · 62 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 1st 3:34Xavier Parent (1–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 1st 10:47Penalty
  • 1st 15:15Penalty
  • 1st 15:15Penalty
  • 1st 15:15Penalty
  • 1st 15:15Tyler Boucher (1–2)high · 11 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 1st 18:26Penalty
  • 1st 19:06Arthur Kaliyev (1–3)5v4 · medium · 22 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 2nd 3:10Olle Lycksell (1–4)grade A · rebound · 35 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 2nd 3:24Graeme Clarke (1–5)high · 18 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 2nd 4:13Penalty
  • 2nd 7:55Penalty
  • 2nd 9:17Jonathan Gruden (2–5)5v4 · medium · 28 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 11:41Cam Squires (3–5)medium · 18 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 18:07Penalty
  • 2nd 18:07Penalty
  • 2nd 18:07Penalty
  • 3rd 10:19Hayden Hodgson (3–6)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Jakub Málek
  • 3rd 11:52Graeme Clarke (3–7)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Jakub Málek
  • 3rd 14:53Penalty
  • 3rd 14:53Penalty
  • 3rd 14:53Penalty
  • 3rd 14:53Penalty
  • 3rd 14:53Penalty
  • 3rd 15:04Penalty