Texas Stars at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Texas Stars

4:2

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

TEXCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

72%28%

xG: 4.23.0
High danger: 103
Chances: 1611
Shots: 3330

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal30

16Scoring chances11

10High-danger chances3

4.18Expected goals2.96

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	6–4	2–2	1.5–0.9
2nd	12–13	5–4	4–1	1.4–1.1
3rd	10–9	5–3	4–0	1.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	16:53	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.18
GSAx: +0.18

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.96
GSAx: +0.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:51Nikita Pavlychev (0–1)high · 8 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 13:58Jack Becker (1–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 16:20Arttu Hyry (2–1)low · 27 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 16:50Arttu Hyry (3–1)medium · 6 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 1:01Penalty
2nd 2:43Penalty
2nd 6:47Matthew Seminoff (4–1)low · 41 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 15:01Penalty
2nd 19:25Penalty
3rd 2:11Penalty
3rd 2:11Penalty
3rd 2:11Penalty
3rd 8:16Penalty
3rd 9:02Viktor Neuchev (4–2)5v4 · medium · 14 ft · beat Rémi Poirier