AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 7

Rockford IceHogs at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Rockford IceHogs
4:6
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

RFDSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
35%65%
xG
2.13.6
High danger
58
Chances
1012
Shots
2833

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal33
10Scoring chances12
5High-danger chances8
2.14Expected goals3.63

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–117–23–21.3–0.7
2nd9–92–31–10.5–1.1
3rd8–131–71–50.3–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
33
Saves
27
Allowed
6
xGA
3.63
GSAx
-2.37
Calle Clang
Shots faced
28
Saves
24
Allowed
4
xGA
2.14
GSAx
-1.86

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:30Penalty
  • 1st 2:02Penalty
  • 1st 3:39Nikita Nesterenko (0–1)4v5 · high · 14 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 6:24Dominic Toninato (1–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 1st 10:44Penalty
  • 1st 11:15Ryan Carpenter (1–2)5v4 · low · 50 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 11:55Penalty
  • 1st 12:46Ryan Carpenter (1–3)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 14:59Brett Seney (2–3)high · 15 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 1st 16:50Penalty
  • 1st 16:50Penalty
  • 1st 16:50Penalty
  • 2nd 1:30Penalty
  • 2nd 5:21Rem Pitlick (3–3)high · 5 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 16:10Penalty
  • 2nd 18:08Stian Solberg (3–4)5v4 · low · 26 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 0:14Coulson Pitre (3–5)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 5:37Joey Anderson (4–5)low · 50 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 16:00Penalty
  • 3rd 19:43Nikolas Brouillard (4–6)empty net · low · 145 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue