Calgary Wranglers at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Calgary Wranglers

2:4

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

CGYCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 3.62.7
High danger: 55
Chances: 1112
Shots: 4021

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 69% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal21

11Scoring chances12

5High-danger chances5

3.56Expected goals2.74

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–5	5–1	3–1	1.1–0.4
2nd	14–8	2–6	1–4	1.2–1.4
3rd	13–8	4–5	1–0	1.3–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 38
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.56
GSAx: +1.56

Arsenii Sergeev

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 17
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.74
GSAx: -1.26

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:10Penalty
1st 4:10Penalty
1st 7:19Logan Morrison (0–1)low · 25 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
1st 9:17Penalty
1st 16:49Penalty
2nd 0:56Jani Nyman (0–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
2nd 3:31Penalty
2nd 8:48Jagger Firkus (0–3)low · 32 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
2nd 18:29Lucas Ciona (1–3)medium · 19 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 18:56Dryden Hunt (2–3)low · 23 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 0:44Penalty
3rd 3:45Penalty
3rd 8:38Gustav Olofsson (2–4)low · 25 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
3rd 9:10Penalty
3rd 11:32Penalty
3rd 12:38Penalty