Colorado Eagles at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Colorado Eagles

0:4

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

COLABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 1.62.6
High danger: 04
Chances: 611
Shots: 2325

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 37% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal25

6Scoring chances11

0High-danger chances4

1.56Expected goals2.59

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	3–5	0–1	0.6–1.0
2nd	7–8	1–3	0–2	0.4–0.8
3rd	8–8	2–3	0–1	0.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isak Posch

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.59
GSAx: -1.41

Ty Young

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 23
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.56
GSAx: +1.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:03Penalty
1st 6:32Penalty
1st 6:42Ty Mueller (0–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Isak Posch
1st 8:05Jack Thompson (0–2)5v4 · low · 82 ft · beat Isak Posch
1st 10:13Penalty
1st 16:19Penalty
2nd 18:07Danila Klimovich (0–3)high · 13 ft · beat Isak Posch
3rd 0:19Penalty
3rd 0:51Penalty
3rd 1:11Ty Mueller (0–4)5v4 · grade A · 3 ft · beat Isak Posch
3rd 11:00Penalty
3rd 13:32Penalty
3rd 17:15Penalty
3rd 19:32Penalty
3rd 19:32Penalty
3rd 19:32Penalty
3rd 19:32Penalty
3rd 19:32Penalty
3rd 19:32Penalty