Hershey Bears at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Hershey Bears

4:5

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

HERPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 2.14.2
High danger: 46
Chances: 518
Shots: 2841

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 66% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal41

5Scoring chances18

4High-danger chances6

2.08Expected goals4.18

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–11	0–7	0–0	0.5–1.2
2nd	14–16	2–9	1–4	0.9–1.8
3rd	7–14	3–2	3–2	0.7–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:14	+0.052 pts
HER	1	19:12 of the 3rd	0:48	0:48	+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Garin Bjorklund

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.95
GSAx: -1.05

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.08
GSAx: -1.92

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 10
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.23
GSAx: +0.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:55Joey Abate (0–1)medium · 36 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 6:13Dalton Smith (1–1)low · 47 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 10:15Penalty
1st 12:43Penalty
2nd 1:31Penalty
2nd 2:54Penalty
2nd 4:07Christian Wolanin (1–2)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
2nd 5:12Penalty
2nd 7:14Penalty
2nd 15:15Penalty
3rd 4:27Penalty
3rd 5:12Penalty
3rd 6:29Matěj Blümel (1–3)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 7:29Bogdan Trineyev (2–3)high · 21 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 10:36Penalty
3rd 12:00Ilya Protas (3–3)5v4 · low · 52 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 16:08Ilya Protas (4–3)high · 9 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 17:10Jake Schmaltz (4–4)high · 9 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 19:12Riley Tufte (4–5)low · 42 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund