Ontario Reign at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Ontario Reign

2:1

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

ONTHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 1.31.8
High danger: 02
Chances: 42
Shots: 2528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal28

4Scoring chances2

0High-danger chances2

1.33Expected goals1.81

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–13	3–1	0–1	0.8–0.8
2nd	7–8	1–1	0–1	0.3–0.5
3rd	6–7	0–0	0–0	0.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	3:41	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.81
GSAx: +0.81

Cameron Whitehead

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.33
GSAx: -0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:24Glenn Gawdin (1–0)medium · tip · 18 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
2nd 13:19Cole Guttman (2–0)low · backhand · 13 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
2nd 13:41Penalty
3rd 12:46Jeremy Davies (2–1)low · wrist · 38 ft · beat Erik Portillo