AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 8

Calgary Wranglers at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Calgary Wranglers
1:4
Final
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

CGYCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
24%76%
xG
1.42.8
High danger
45
Chances
610
Shots
1636

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 69% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

16Shots on goal36
6Scoring chances10
4High-danger chances5
1.41Expected goals2.77

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–143–32–10.8–1.0
2nd5–122–32–10.4–0.8
3rd3–101–40–30.2–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Prosvetov
Shots faced
36
Saves
32
Allowed
4
xGA
2.77
GSAx
-1.23
Victor Östman
Shots faced
16
Saves
15
Allowed
1
xGA
1.41
GSAx
+0.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 14:23Penalty
  • 1st 17:23Penalty
  • 2nd 2:27Eduard Šalé (0–1)low · 25 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 5:11Penalty
  • 2nd 5:39Justin Kirkland (1–1)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 2nd 7:32Kaden Hammell (1–2)low · 51 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 12:28Logan Morrison (1–3)medium · 14 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 15:12Penalty
  • 3rd 6:21Penalty
  • 3rd 6:21Penalty
  • 3rd 9:51Penalty
  • 3rd 10:19Penalty
  • 3rd 17:53Eduard Šalé (1–4)empty net · low · 86 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 18:08Penalty
  • 3rd 19:46Penalty