Manitoba Moose at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Manitoba Moose

4:0

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

MBABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

78%22%

xG: 2.81.9
High danger: 81
Chances: 93
Shots: 1930

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal30

9Scoring chances3

8High-danger chances1

2.76Expected goals1.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–11	2–1	2–1	0.4–0.6
2nd	7–12	4–2	3–0	1.2–0.8
3rd	9–7	3–0	3–0	1.1–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	3	7:01 of the 3rd	12:59	12:59	+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 30
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.89
GSAx: +1.89

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 15
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.76
GSAx: -1.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:21Penalty
1st 7:37Penalty
1st 7:37Penalty
1st 7:37Penalty
1st 12:00Penalty
2nd 1:33Samuel Fagemo (1–0)high · 8 ft · beat Jiří Patera
2nd 13:04Parker Ford (2–0)grade A · 9 ft · beat Jiří Patera
2nd 19:11Penalty
3rd 6:10Penalty
3rd 7:01Nikita Chibrikov (3–0)5v4 · grade A · 8 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 9:07Isaak Phillips (4–0)low · 63 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 15:47Penalty
3rd 15:47Penalty
3rd 15:47Penalty
3rd 15:47Penalty
3rd 16:03Penalty