AHLDashboard
Wednesday, March 11

Providence Bruins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Providence Bruins
3:2
Final / OT
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

PROSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
66%34%
xG
3.52.4
High danger
44
Chances
98
Shots
3727

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal27
9Scoring chances8
4High-danger chances4
3.52Expected goals2.40

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9932100.80.7
2nd141023010.90.9
3rd11723130.80.8
OT3120201.00.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Nobody trailed late enough in the third for the goalie to be a decision.

In goal

Shots faced
37
Saves
34
Allowed
3
xGA
3.52
GSAx
+0.52
Shots faced
27
Saves
25
Allowed
2
xGA
2.40
GSAx
+0.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:40Penalty
  • 1st 14:10Penalty
  • 1st 15:28Marc-André Gaudet (0–1)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 0:35Penalty
  • 2nd 3:04Penalty
  • 2nd 9:13Penalty
  • 2nd 12:22Penalty
  • 2nd 18:14Penalty
  • 3rd 4:10Georgii Merkulov (1–1)high · rebound · 6 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 8:02Penalty
  • 3rd 11:21Riley Duran (2–1)low · 52 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 14:03Thomas Bordeleau (2–2)high · 12 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 17:10Penalty
  • 3rd 18:41Penalty
  • OT 3:16Lukas Reichel (3–2)grade A · 13 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko