Cleveland Monsters at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Cleveland Monsters

3:2

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

CLEHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 2.62.6
High danger: 64
Chances: 109
Shots: 2932

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal32

10Scoring chances9

6High-danger chances4

2.60Expected goals2.63

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–9	4–4	2–2	0.8–0.9
2nd	12–10	4–2	3–1	1.2–0.9
3rd	8–13	2–3	1–1	0.6–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	1	17:47 of the 3rd	2:13	2:13	+0.049 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Fedotov

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: +0.63

Spencer Martin

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.60
GSAx: -0.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:18Penalty
1st 1:49Penalty
1st 4:07Penalty
1st 16:10Penalty
2nd 2:09Penalty
2nd 15:02Scott Morrow (0–1)low · 45 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
2nd 15:58Penalty
2nd 16:21Brendan Gaunce (1–1)5v4 · high · 29 ft · beat Spencer Martin
2nd 19:07Luca Del Bel Belluz (2–1)low · 36 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 9:36Penalty
3rd 15:33Scott Morrow (2–2)medium · 7 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
3rd 17:47Zach Aston-Reese (3–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Spencer Martin