Toronto Marlies at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Toronto Marlies

5:1

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

TORSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 2.73.1
High danger: 54
Chances: 910
Shots: 2631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal31

9Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances4

2.65Expected goals3.05

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–12	3–4	1–2	0.9–1.3
2nd	11–4	5–1	4–0	1.3–0.3
3rd	5–15	1–5	0–2	0.4–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	15:15	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.05
GSAx: +2.05

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.65
GSAx: -2.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:03Noah Chadwick (1–0)low · 43 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 13:04Alex Nylander (2–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 19:36Penalty
2nd 4:32Ryan Tverberg (3–0)high · 14 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 5:15Penalty
2nd 9:54Penalty
2nd 9:54Penalty
2nd 15:42Penalty
3rd 0:47Penalty
3rd 4:23Mitchell Chaffee (3–1)grade A · rebound · 22 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 4:29Penalty
3rd 9:08Luke Haymes (4–1)low · 27 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 17:24Alex Nylander (5–1)empty net · low · 76 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 19:51Penalty