Utica Comets at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Utica Comets

4:1

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

UTCROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 5.23.0
High danger: 105
Chances: 1611
Shots: 4231

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal31

16Scoring chances11

10High-danger chances5

5.22Expected goals3.02

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–13	2–6	1–1	1.0–1.2
2nd	17–9	8–1	4–1	2.4–0.8
3rd	12–9	6–4	5–3	1.9–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	3	9:19 of the 3rd	10:41	10:41	+0.015 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 38
Allowed: 4
xGA: 5.22
GSAx: +1.22

Jakub Málek

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.02
GSAx: +2.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:41Penalty
1st 1:41Penalty
1st 9:09Penalty
1st 15:19Xavier Parent (1–0)low · 28 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 16:16Penalty
2nd 1:26Penalty
2nd 4:05Zac Jones (1–1)low · 57 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 11:32Penalty
2nd 15:29Penalty
2nd 16:27Brian Halonen (2–1)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 17:58Penalty
2nd 19:01Matyas Melovsky (3–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 8:08Penalty
3rd 9:19Austin Strand (4–1)4v5 · low · 46 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 16:27Penalty
3rd 19:07Penalty
3rd 19:07Penalty
3rd 19:07Penalty