Henderson Silver Knights at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Henderson Silver Knights

7:6

Final / OT

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

HSKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 3.14.1
High danger: 35
Chances: 1217
Shots: 3035

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal35

12Scoring chances17

3High-danger chances5

3.07Expected goals4.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–21	3–10	1–3	0.8–2.7
2nd	13–8	7–5	2–1	1.8–0.9
3rd	7–6	2–2	0–1	0.4–0.5
OT	1–0	0–0	0–0	0.1–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Nobody trailed late enough in the third for the goalie to be a decision.

In goal

Cameron Whitehead

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.95
GSAx: -0.05

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 16
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.57
GSAx: -3.43

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 8
Saves: 7
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.49
GSAx: -0.51

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 6
Saves: 3
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.18
GSAx: -1.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:15Raphael Lavoie (1–0)low · 43 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 4:30Austin Poganski (1–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 5:13Scott Perunovich (1–2)grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 5:42Cameron Hebig (1–3)medium · 16 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 6:21Ty Tullio (1–4)low · 40 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
1st 8:11Jaycob Megna (2–4)low · 18 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 12:40Penalty
1st 12:40Penalty
1st 16:31Julian Lutz (2–5)low · 21 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
2nd 0:11Raphael Lavoie (3–5)medium · 14 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 5:29Penalty
2nd 6:42Penalty
2nd 7:11Penalty
2nd 8:46Matyas Sapovaliv (4–5)5v4 · low · 36 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 13:05Penalty
2nd 15:15Trevor Connelly (5–5)5v4 · medium · 16 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 16:02Austin Poganski (5–6)medium · 13 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
2nd 16:09Penalty
2nd 19:25Trevor Connelly (6–6)grade A · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 1:14Penalty
OT 1:38Raphael Lavoie (7–6)low · 34 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber