Manitoba Moose at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Manitoba Moose

1:4

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

MBABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 1.72.1
High danger: 34
Chances: 57
Shots: 2323

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal23

5Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances4

1.72Expected goals2.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–9	3–2	2–2	0.8–1.0
2nd	8–4	2–1	1–0	0.6–0.2
3rd	4–10	0–4	0–2	0.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:39 of the 3rd	7:21	7:21	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: -1.86

Ty Young

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.72
GSAx: +0.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:39Penalty
1st 10:39Penalty
1st 14:26Nils Åman (0–1)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 15:46Penalty
1st 16:08Danila Klimovich (0–2)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 16:58Penalty
2nd 2:53Penalty
2nd 6:16Penalty
2nd 8:08Mason Shaw (1–2)5v4 · low · 63 ft · beat Ty Young
2nd 8:20Penalty
2nd 8:20Penalty
2nd 8:42Penalty
2nd 8:42Penalty
2nd 8:42Penalty
2nd 12:10Penalty
3rd 1:53Penalty
3rd 12:39Danila Klimovich (1–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 18:22Jimmy Schuldt (1–4)empty net · low · 175 ft · beat Thomas Milic