Cleveland Monsters at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Cleveland Monsters

3:1

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

CLEHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 3.12.6
High danger: 37
Chances: 1411
Shots: 3028

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal28

14Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances7

3.13Expected goals2.60

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–14	0–7	0–5	0.6–1.7
2nd	13–6	7–2	2–2	1.5–0.5
3rd	8–8	7–2	1–0	1.1–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.13
GSAx: +0.13

Zach Sawchenko

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.23
GSAx: +1.23

Ivan Fedotov

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 9
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.37
GSAx: +0.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:05Guillaume Richard (1–0)low · 17 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 3:19Penalty
1st 7:34Penalty
1st 13:17Brendan Brisson (1–1)high · 18 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
1st 14:15Penalty
1st 14:15Penalty
2nd 3:23Penalty
2nd 12:56Penalty
2nd 12:56Penalty
2nd 12:56Penalty
2nd 12:56Penalty
2nd 13:34Penalty
2nd 13:34Penalty
2nd 19:30Guillaume Richard (2–1)low · 53 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 7:43Penalty
3rd 14:17Penalty
3rd 19:52Jack Williams (3–1)empty net · medium · 27 ft · beat Dylan Garand