Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

4:1

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

LVSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.64.1
High danger: 45
Chances: 1019
Shots: 2040

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal40

10Scoring chances19

4High-danger chances5

2.63Expected goals4.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–22	5–11	2–3	1.3–2.4
2nd	3–12	0–7	0–2	0.2–1.3
3rd	6–6	5–1	2–0	1.1–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 39
Allowed: 1
xGA: 4.08
GSAx: +3.08

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: -1.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:32Tucker Robertson (1–0)medium · 21 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
1st 6:04Penalty
1st 7:32Brett Harrison (2–0)5v4 · grade A · 19 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
1st 14:53Penalty
1st 15:37Mitchell Chaffee (2–1)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
2nd 6:30Penalty
2nd 6:30Penalty
2nd 11:23Penalty
2nd 11:23Penalty
2nd 19:09Penalty
3rd 2:16Penalty
3rd 10:10Lane Pederson (3–1)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 19:38Jacob Gaucher (4–1)empty net · high · 12 ft · beat Ryan Fanti