Toronto Marlies at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Toronto Marlies

3:4

Final / OT

Rochester Americans

The sheet

TORROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 2.33.3
High danger: 28
Chances: 810
Shots: 3435

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal35

8Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances8

2.33Expected goals3.30

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–5	1–2	0–2	0.4–0.5
2nd	14–13	5–3	0–2	1.1–1.1
3rd	13–16	2–5	2–4	0.8–1.6
OT	0–1	0–0	0–0	0.0–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	16:15 of the 3rd	3:45	1:39	+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.30
GSAx: -0.70

Scott Ratzlaff

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.33
GSAx: -0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:00Penalty
1st 3:00Penalty
1st 5:25Olivier Nadeau (0–1)low · 32 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 8:10Penalty
1st 11:33Penalty
1st 19:33Penalty
1st 19:33Penalty
1st 19:33Penalty
2nd 2:20Konsta Helenius (0–2)low · 36 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 5:30Penalty
2nd 7:55Penalty
2nd 14:02Penalty
3rd 2:50Matthew Barbolini (1–2)low · 34 ft · beat Scott Ratzlaff
3rd 11:47Penalty
3rd 16:15Vsevolod Komarov (1–3)low · 56 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 17:33Ryan Tverberg (2–3)high · 7 ft · beat Scott Ratzlaff
3rd 17:54Matthew Barbolini (3–3)low · 42 ft · beat Scott Ratzlaff
OT 1:23Trevor Kuntar (3–4)low · 50 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby