Chicago Wolves at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Chicago Wolves

1:4

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

CHIRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 2.42.6
High danger: 35
Chances: 1013
Shots: 3025

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 44% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal25

10Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances5

2.38Expected goals2.62

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–8	3–6	1–3	0.8–1.1
2nd	7–11	3–5	2–0	0.8–0.9
3rd	13–6	4–2	0–2	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: +1.38

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.62
GSAx: -1.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:40Martin Misiak (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 18:22Penalty
1st 19:42Ryan Suzuki (1–1)5v4 · high · tip · 6 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 1:37Penalty
2nd 1:37Penalty
2nd 5:17Joey Anderson (1–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 6:05Penalty
2nd 6:05Penalty
2nd 6:05Penalty
2nd 6:05Penalty
2nd 6:05Penalty
2nd 18:55Penalty
3rd 3:32Penalty
3rd 3:32Penalty
3rd 4:58Penalty
3rd 7:59Taige Harding (1–3)low · 36 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 16:37Rem Pitlick (1–4)empty net · low · 146 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 18:43Penalty
3rd 18:43Penalty
3rd 18:43Penalty
3rd 18:43Penalty
3rd 18:43Penalty
3rd 18:43Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty